kane
CATFISH
It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase
Posts: 180
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Post by kane on Mar 27, 2024 6:44:59 GMT -8
Small bet on 81.5 and 82. Gil Alexander on VSIN broke down why he liked this bet a few weeks ago. Last year the Padres were 1-12 in extra innings and 8-23 in one run games, they also ranked last in the NL in BA with runners in scoring position, all of those numbers will improve this year, their record didn't match their metrics, I made this play before the Cease trade which only makes me like it more
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 27, 2024 6:47:10 GMT -8
Nice work Kane.
Thanks for sharing the stats on the close games, runners in scoring position etc.
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kane
CATFISH
It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase
Posts: 180
|
Post by kane on Mar 27, 2024 6:51:48 GMT -8
The Marlins were the total opposite of the Padres, they were 33-14 in one run games last year, they're due for some serious regression, they also lost their ace Sandy Alcantara to TJ surgery, and they lost Jorge Soler who led them in HR's last year, they won a lot more games last year than their metrics suggested
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 27, 2024 6:54:32 GMT -8
The Marlins were the total opposite of the Padres, they were 33-14 in one run games last year, they're due for some serious regression, they also lost their ace Sandy Alcantara to TJ surgery, and they lost Jorge Soler who led them in HR's last year, they won a lot more games last year than their metrics suggested Kane do you happen to know if the Marlins total was bet down at all this spring?
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kane
CATFISH
It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase
Posts: 180
|
Post by kane on Mar 27, 2024 7:20:28 GMT -8
I have three places I bet at, I wrote down all the season win totals when they first came out and updated them every week, one of my places opened Mia 78.5 over -120, they didn't move much at all, they're currently 78.5 under -120. The second place opened them 78.5 under -130 and are currently using 78 under -145, and the third place opened 78.5 under -130 and are currently using 77.5 under -115, so some movement to the under, at least at my books
In addition to the expected regression in one run games, along with Alcantara being out, their young stud Eury Perez is dealing with elbow soreness and is starting the season on the IL, right now they don't think it's serious, but given how young he is they'll be very cautious with him, their projected rotation is Jesus Luzardo, AJ Puk, Trevor Rogers, Ryan Weathers, and Max Meyer. Luzardo is solid and a dark horse to win the NL CY, Puk has been a reliever his whole career and has never started a game, in 2021 Rogers was terrific posting a 2.64 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP, the next year in 2022 his ERA ballooned to 5.47 with a 1.505 WHIP, and last year he only started a few games before getting hurt, don't know what to expect from him this year but he's a question mark, Weathers has started a total of 31 games in his career and has a career ERA of 5.88, not very inspiring, and Meyer, while considered a big time prospect, is coming off TJ surgery, so tough to predict how he'll do. This has always been a franchise built around their starting pitching and hope to scratch across enough runs to win a 4-3 type game, the problem is this year's staff has a lot of question marks other than Luzardo who I think is primed to have a big year. Bottom line is, between the injuries and questions surrounding their rotation, combined with losing their best power hitter, plus the regression in games decided by one run, I think they go under their win total.
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 27, 2024 7:22:59 GMT -8
Great stuff here Kane.
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Post by professor on Mar 28, 2024 16:30:40 GMT -8
Tigers 1-0 final.
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Post by Fishhead on Mar 28, 2024 16:31:47 GMT -8
GREAT START
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 28, 2024 16:38:22 GMT -8
Nice pitching performance today.
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 30, 2024 15:20:14 GMT -8
Extra innings win today.
Going for the sweep tomorrow.
2-0 start.
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Post by Fishhead on Mar 30, 2024 15:29:56 GMT -8
Awesome
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Post by professor on Mar 31, 2024 13:08:54 GMT -8
Tigers sweep 3-0 start.
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Post by Fishhead on Mar 31, 2024 13:12:13 GMT -8
THIS IS WILD
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Post by slickfazzer on Mar 31, 2024 16:38:26 GMT -8
3-0 start.
Now 3 at the Mets.
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Post by Fishhead on Mar 31, 2024 16:52:12 GMT -8
fuk
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